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Regional Science & Technology and Innovation

Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Regional Differ⁃ ences in the Development Level of New Quality Productive Forces

Ren Qingzhong, Qin Qijue, Ling Yantao, Yan Ying

(School of Economics and Finance, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054, China)

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the global technological revolution and industrial transfor⁃ mation accelerating alongside mounting downward pressure on the global economy, vigorously  developing new quality productive forces has become a pivotal strategic path for China. It en⁃ ables China to seize the initiative in strategic development, enhance core industrial competitive⁃ ness, and forge new international competitive advantages. However, research on constructing and  statistically measuring evaluation indicator systems for new quality productive forces is still in a  dynamic refinement phase. This objectively restricts the precise formulation of industrial and re⁃ gional development policies. Based on the connotation and characteristics of new quality produc⁃ tive forces, this paper constructs an evaluation system with eight dimensions: technological inno⁃ vation, innovative allocation of production factors, industrial upgrading, laborers, labor re⁃ sources, labor objects, green development, and digitalization. In the measurement stage, the Ker⁃ nel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA) machine learning method is used to screen and opti⁃ mize the initially built indicator system, enhancing its scientificity and rationality. Using panel  data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2010 to 2022, the entropy weight method measures the  level of new quality productive forces. Subsequently, the Kernel density estimation method, Da⁃gum Gini coefficient, and Moran's I index are applied to assess the spatiotemporal evolution  trends, sources of disparities, and spatial correlations of new quality productive forces. The re⁃ search findings show that China's new quality productive forces have been on a year-by-year  upward trajectory. Beijing ranks first in average value, and Jiangxi province has the highest aver⁃ age growth rate. The eastern region outperforms the western region, with the regional develop⁃ ment gap gradually widening, especially between the two. In terms of spatial distribution, the  eastern region mainly shows "High-High (H-H)" clustering, while other regions mostly exhibit  "Low-Low (L-L)" clustering. Analysis of driving factors reveals that the digitalization level plays  a dominant role, followed by technological innovation. Industrial upgrading and labor resources  contribute less significantly to the level of new quality productive forces. Based on these conclu⁃ sions, this paper proposes three targeted recommendations. Firstly, promote industrial upgrad⁃ ing, transformation, and green development. Strengthen the leading role of digital technological  innovation, build an open and inclusive digital innovation ecosystem, accelerate the development  of new quality productive forces, and consolidate strategic support. Secondly, break down re⁃ gional barriers. The eastern region should lead in deepening regional cooperation, establish in⁃ dustrial cooperation alliances, strengthen the linkage between upstream and downstream sectors  of the industrial chain, achieve complementary advantages, and promote collaborative advance⁃ ment. Thirdly, optimize spatial layout through regional functional positioning, urban agglomera⁃ tion coordination, and dynamic monitoring of new quality productive forces development, en⁃ abling precise resource allocation and achieving high-quality and balanced development. This  paper not only analyzes the competitive industries and shortcomings of the research regions but  also quantitatively evaluates the contributions of driving factors, offering references for optimiz⁃ ing industrial policies and regional differentiated layouts. 

Key words: new quality productive forces; regional differences; spatiotemporal evolution; high-quality development; digitalization; greening; technological innovation; industry transfor⁃ mation and upgrading