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Industrial Innovation

Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Cou⁃ pling Coordination Between Future Industries and Strategic  Emerging Industries in China's Urban Agglomerations 

Du Jianmin1 , Wang Jingling2 

(1.Business School, China University of Political Science and Law, Beijing 100088, China; 2.School of Econom⁃ ics, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, China)

Abstract: In the new development stage, future industries and strategic emerging industries  serve as critical vehicles for cultivating new quality productive forces, and their synergistic de⁃ velopment is of great significance for optimizing the national innovation system and regional in⁃ dustrial layout. These two types of industries are sequentially linked in technological evolution  ("frontier exploration—application diffusion"), require dynamic adaptation in factor allocation, and depend on institutional synergy in policy support, jointly forming a "twin-engine" for highquality economic development. Based on industry life cycle theory, innovation diffusion theory, and institutional synergy theory, this study constructs a three-dimensional analytical framework of "temporal succession—factor adaptation—institutional synergy" to systematically explain the  interactive mechanism between the two. Using data from A-share listed companies from 2013 to  2023, with precise industry code matching and manual verification, we aggregate and construct  panel datasets for future industries and strategic emerging industries at the urban agglomeration  level, covering 19 major urban agglomerations in China. By comprehensively applying the Verti⁃ cal and Horizontal Scatter Degree Method, Coupling Coordination Degree Model, Dagum Gini  Coefficient, and Quadratic Assignment Procedure (QAP), this paper empirically investigates the  spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and driving mechanisms of their coupling coordi⁃ nation development. The findings reveal that: ①Temporally, the overall level of coupling coordi⁃ nation between future industries and strategic emerging industries in China's urban agglomera⁃ tions is relatively low, and the coordination gap among optimizing/upgrading, mature/expanding, and cultivating/developing agglomerations shows a widening trend, indicating a growing issue of  insufficient regional synergistic development. ②Spatially, the overall difference in coupling coor⁃ dination is mainly attributed to interregional disparities among the three categories of urban ag⁃ glomerations, reflecting significant spatial differentiation and fragmentation, which unveils block⁃ ages in the transmission chain from innovation sources to industrial hinterlands. ③Regarding  driving mechanisms, disparities in infrastructure, innovation output, and environmental rights  markets such as carbon trading are the primary sources of overall coordination differences; data  elements exhibit non-competitive and strong spillover characteristics, with a significantly nega⁃ tive coefficient, helping to mitigate regional gaps. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the  three categories of urban agglomerations show heterogeneous responses to driving factors, provid⁃ ing a basis for differentiated policy design. This study proposes policy recommendations from the  perspectives of a "benchmarking + gradient cultivation" demonstration system, dynamic warning  mechanisms, and reforms in local officials' performance appraisal, and tailors differentiated coor⁃ dination pathways for the three types of urban agglomerations. For instance, enhancing the radi⁃ ating and driving role of optimizing/upgrading agglomerations, while focusing on consolidating in⁃ frastructure and talent foundations for cultivating/developing ones. This research not only deep⁃ ens the theoretical understanding of the interaction between future industries and strategic  emerging industries but also provides empirical evidence and decision-making references for  promoting regional innovation synergy and industrial ecosystem optimization. 

Key words: future industry; strategic emerging industry; coupling coordination development; innovation diffusion; industry life cycle theory; QAP; new quality productive force; regional dis⁃ parity